Public Markets

Short Roku

Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU) Date written: Feb 15, 2018 Current price: $45 Price target: $20-25 (45-55% gain) Time frame: 6-12 months Recommendation What: SHORT with price target of $20/share (50% to gain). Time frame: 6-18 months. Why: Overly ambitious user growth estimates Inferior hardware product Limited potential for company to cut costs Catalysts: Potential earnings miss (2/21/18) Missed earnings will cause a sell-off IPO lockup period ends March 2018 => stock price will drop Series B converted shares will get sold off => stock price will drop Risks:

Still long on Gilead (GILD): $120 PT

Price target: $120 Time frame: 1-2 years A year after my original call (http://, I am still long GILD. The positive drivers clearly outweigh the overblown fears. Positive Drivers: the recent Kite Pharma acquisition Gilead will continue to print money with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) drugs Overblown Fears: “the hepatitis C (HCV) revenues are decreasing!” “the HCV patents are expiring!” The overblown fears should be non-issues.

Long on Equifax (EFX): $150 PT

Price target: $150 Time frame: 12-18 months The sentiment has turned. Buy equifax (NYSE: EFX) stock now. The data breach was a minor f***-up, but sent shares tumbling from the 140s to the 90s. How about that. The bull case for Equifax can be described from 3 angles: strong market economics strong business strong management Business This may be obvious by now, but it’s clear that in this day and age, data is money.